Sep 01, 2014
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Wednesday morning powerful Thunderstorms taking place over Temecula, video shot by site owner Michael Mojarro.
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**Forecast: Monday, September, 1st, 2014, 1:30am**
Our weak heat wave that we experienced the past 3-5 days while i was out in the desert began coming to an end on Sunday, and further cooler is expect for this Labor day afternoon as a weak trough of low pressure slowly begins to drop down the west coast. It was quite hot in the lower deserts this weekend with where i was at for work in Indio topping out at 118 last Friday. 100s were widespread in the I.E. That will all be as a distant memory as we head through the week. Look for 2-4 degrees of additional cooling today with a slight deepening of the marine layer along the coast. An inversion layer along San Diego and Orange county beaches along with warmer then normal coastal waters will make it hard to clear this afternoon at the coast, but low clouds and fog that make it into the coastal valleys will burn off quickly for a beautiful holiday across So Cal. Look for highs cool along the coast in the low 70s due to limited sun, then upper 70s and 80s for the coastal valleys, and widespread lower and middle 90s for the I.E. Lake Elsinore the I.Es hot spot may touch 100 one last time this afternoon before staying below that the rest of the week. In the low deserts look for highs between 100-110, and in the mountains middle 70s and 80s, overall these temperatures are right where we should be for the beginning of September. There may be some gusty evening winds in the mountains and deserts as onshore flow strengthens tonight. Lows in the middle 50s and 60s west of the mountains, and upper 30s and 40s in the mountains.
High pressure will fully move off to the east Tuesday through about Friday as our trough of low pressure hangs out over Northern and Central California. This will deepen the marine layer more and more each day, reaching all the way into the I.E by Wednesday morning through Friday, but clouds should burn off all the way to the coast by mid morning for all areas. Highs will fall to about 3-6 degrees below normal west of the mountains, especially for the coast and coastal valleys with lower 70s and 80s overall. Warmer in the I.E further from the sea breeze but still a couple degrees below normal with upper 80s and middle 90s. Look for winds conditions at times in the mountains and deserts, may even need some wind advisories by Wednesday/Thursday. Highs in the mountains about as comfortable as you can get in the 70s overall, with highs in the lower and middle 100s in the low deserts. Nights will get cooller due to our hours of sunlight shortening as we head towards fall, as well as dry air in place above the marine layer. Look for 50s overall west of the mountains, but becoming quite chilly in the mountains with lower 30s and 40s Wednesday through Friday mornings. May touch freezing as lake level in Big Bear where cold dry air tends to get trapped. Should start affecting the Aspen leaves up above Big Bear with some minor yellow colors maybe showing up by the weekend.
Looking towards this weekend things get a little more uncertain as computer runs keep bouncing back and forth between continued troughing and mild dry weather, and building high pressure over Arizona bringing warming and once again opening the Monsoon door for at least one more round of showers as thunderstorms by as early as Sunday next week. The latest GFS model shows yet another tropical low, likely from a dying Hurricane or Tropical storm moving up over Baja and then somewhere over So Cal early next week, either over our mountains and deserts or right on top of us. If these trends continue we could see yet another widespread shower and thunderstorm event, one again favoring San Diego county and the I.E. Too far out to really have much confidence in that happening for now, and computer runs could very well witch back to dry weather and more troughing, so it will be watching carefully. We've already seen some much needed nearly record breaking summer rains west of the mountains since mid July. Not as much in the mountains, where big monsoon season like this summers are quite common. I will note that we are entering the time of year where long range forecasting computers get very unreliable as the battle of the seasons begins to set up as the northern jet stream starts becoming more active, but the southern jet also remains active as it has been, the northern jet bringing drier cooler fall like weather, and a more active southern jet for us bringing warm summer like weather with continued on and off monsoon activity. So anything outside of 5 days really is trusted by me at least, until old man winter gets closer and the northern jet takes over towards the end of October. El nino still hasn't fully developed in the pacific, there is still a chance it may but time is running out. But with warmer then waters off the California coast, it may not take an El Nino year to bring heavy drenching rainfalls. More details are being issued in my VIP Winter Outlook right now, and all vIPS will have it by noon tomorrow at the lats test. Here on the site I am delaying the date it gets posted publicly to September 17th since the VIP Outlook was delayed nearly a week.
2014/2015 Winter Outlook for be sent to all VIP members this afteroon, and published for the general public here on the site on September 17th!
Site Owner/Forecaster, Michael Mojarro
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Disclaimer: Socalweather.net is a privately run weather site and all forecast and possible advisories issued in no way are related to the National Weather Service or any government agency but from the sole guidance of forecaster Michael Mojarro, weather can not be controlled and all forecast are to be followed at your own will.
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