Sep 19, 2014
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A very rare well defined funnel cloud that may or may of not briefly touched down in the isolated area call Holcomb Valley on the north side of Big Bear can be seen in this picture during our Severe weather outbreak of September 16th 2014. If it touched down it would be one of the highest in elevation documented twisters i the country. But it appears it will always be a mystery if it did as ridge lines blocked any view of a possible small debre field that may of been briefly picked up by the funnel if it made ground contact. The funnel was seen by hundreds all over Big Bear and is authentic!
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**Forecast: Friday, September, 19th, 2014, 2:30am**
As many may have already noticed today there was a drastic change in the weather ove rout heat wave that lasted 3-5 days. Our massive ridge of high pressure that brought sweltering temps all the way to the coast, a couple days of thunderstorms in the I.E, one which had widespread wind damage in many communities along the Elsinore convergence zone,m created millions in flash flood damage in the tow of Wildomar, had two small tornadoes touch down our near Perris/Sun City, and the most unique part of the event, a rare funnel cloud, maybe even a touch down up in the San Bernardino mtns in the Holdcomb valley on the north side of big bear lake on it eastern desert slopes, if it did touch down which no one was able to confirm due to mtn ridges blocking the view, it would be one of the highest in elevation documented tornadoes not just only in California, but in the county. The highest documented tornado touch down in the world ironically was also in California in the Sierras near Mt Whitney near the 12,000ft level. The Denver area has seen its share of twisters in its time due to its flat land areas just below the rockies, but that elevation is only between 5000-600ft, Holcomb Valley would be up there at 7000. Now after summing out that up, a potent very fall like deepen trough of low pressure is dropping down the California coast this morning. This has rapidly increased are onshore flow and pushed our marine layer well into the valleys deepening it to near o over 4000ft, n fact many areas of So CaL could see some light drizzle/measurable rain wets of the mtns Friday morning due o the very deep marine layer and lift associated wih the trough. In the mountains and deserts today strong onshore winds of 40-60mph will occur, very common for potent trough passages like this, and a sign that summer is on its way out, maybe for good. Of course we still have the Santa Ana wind season upon us for October, but with El Nino affect our weather like i think it will, i think a wetter then normal October instead of a bone dry one with lots of winds and ire danger is more likely, of course im sure we will see a couple Santa Ana events, we always do. Highs today will be 5-10 degrees below normal, and 30 degrees or more cooler in some areas compared to temps that we saw on Tuesday and Wednesday. A perfect example how fast weather can change. Look for highs this afternoon in the 60s along the coast with limited sun, 70s for the coastal valleys, and middle 70s and 80s for the inland Empire, its unlikely anyone will touch 90 degrees this afternoon, even in the most far inland Valleys. The deserts will be the only hot spot but still cooler then normal for mid September in the lower 100s, and a dry heat, muc more comfortable then the non stop sauna Florida like weather since last weekend. In the mountains highs likely will get stuck in th 60s at the 7000ft level, then lower to mid 70s below that, so fall will be in the air up there.Lows in Big Bear this morning and even more so Saturday morning may drop to or below freezing due to the drier cooler air in place and no longer night as we get closer to the time change,
The next weather concern for So Cal will be Saturday. As this trough officially bottoms out over the area, a cutoff low will form at its base somewhere along the coast of So Cal, most computer models have the core forming just off the coast of L.A or just to the north near pt conception. This for one will keep the cool weather going through the weekend with below normal temps. But the main thing to watch will be some moisture it may pull up from Baja as it spins offshore and gradually moves inland Saturday night likely into central California then moving up into the Sierras, With some unstable air at its core, anbd still the strong September sun There is a very good chance a couple showers/t storms may form over our mountains and deserts, especially in the L.A and even more so San Bernardino mtns as they will be where the best lift and most unstable air is. These wont be monsoon like storms and actually keep things rather cool The freezing level in the San Bernardino mtns Saturday night nears the 10,000-11000ft level so a few snow flakes on So Cals highest peaks cant be ruled out. In the Sierras the first dusting of snow on the higher parts off the Crest above mammoth is very likely, and just about on time as they usually see it in mid to late September. Now if by any chance this cutoff low sags further south closer to San Diego, things could get even more interesting as moisture will be allowed further west over our valleys and coast instead of our mountains, if this happen we could see a stray shower or storm anywhere Saturday afternoon and evening, but if any occurred they'd be very brief.
Looking ahead I think our monsoon season is officially over, and what a wild one it was. We could see a little warming Monday and Tuesaday next week as a little ridge of high pressure pops u, but another even colder and stronger storm system will be on its way into the north west Tuesday and drop down the California coast Wednesday into Thursday next week. Although its still a bit far out, this system right now is showing a lot of cold air to work with for September standards, and will likely bring he first widespread measurable snowfall for the Sierras from around Lake Tahoe northward, and maybe even at Mammoth ski resort since it always seems to really ring out even the slightest amounts of moisture from cold fronts. No rain or snow expected down here but the coolest temps we have seen since May are looking to be a slam dunk. The first day of fall is Monday next week, so it only fits that we see our first fall like storms moving into the west coast. Highs here could drop to 10-20 below normal by Thursday next week, with another very deep marine layer, strong winds, and chilly nights developing, maybe even some 40s in he colder I.E valleys, 50s elsewhere west of the mountains, and some freezing temps in the mountains above 6000ft in the upper 20s and 30s, likely getting the trees and Aspen groves up there to start to show some early signs of Colors, just in time for Big Bear October fest! Stay updated for the latest! I think we will get an early start to our rain season, with possibly So Cal seeing its fits winter like storm before the 10th of October, cray to think abut after our resent heat ave, but keep in mind that was the one true heat wave we had out of a cooler then normal summer i our region, and Hurricane Odile played a big role in that ;)
Site Owner/Forecaster, Michael Mojarro
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