Jul 19, 2014
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A lifting tornado that briefly touched the ground over the Lake Elsinore Convergence zone(near highway 74) back in Summer of 2012 during a super cell thunderstorm. This tornado if it had fully materialized could of been one of the strongest landfalls ever recorded in California as it had a rotating wall cloud. Photo courtesy of site owner Michael Mojarro.
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**Forecast: Saturday, July, 19th, 2014, 12:45am**
Got a quick little change in the weather for the region over the next 24 hours v.s the original forecast from a couple days ago. A potent little tropical low is currently moving up from Baja and is now over Arizona quickly moving west towards our area. Moisture is increasing with this system and the middle and upper parts of the atmosphere are quite unstable. This is already evident early this morning as showers and thunderstorms are starting to form way out over San Diego and Imperial county deserts. A vort lobe/wave of moisture associated with this low will move through So Cal sometime after 6am this morning and bring a lot of mid level moisture to the region, and some unstable conditions. This will likely bring scatted mostly light showers and sprinkles to all regions of So Cal this morning and afternoon. A couple thunderstorms are also likely to get embedded in this moisture, especially over the mountains and high deserts, so some brief heavier showers are possible in some areas, especially if we can get a break in the clouds this afternoon to allow for some surface heating which could allow for some more potent storms to fire off over the region. The mountains definitely have the best chance at seeing some measurable rain, but just about anywhere could see something. Dry lighting will also be a concern, especially this morning before some deeper moisture moves in later this afternoon. Due to drier air at the surface, any storms that form would be capable of producing some strong downdraft winds, which will need to be watched as there is a slight risk for some Severe weather conditions to develop. Depending on the exact track of the low, i think L.A county and Ventura county may actually see the most concentrated action this afternoon, there could even be some storms forming out over the coastal waters, which could open up the window for some water spout potential, but chances are slight. Bottom line look for a cloudy, kind of humid day today with some passing light showers for some folks, with some places seeing nothing at all, while others could actually see a quick dose of wetting rain. Highs will remain well below normal for the core of this low overhead, 80s at best inland, mainly 70s for the coast and coastal valleys, as well as in the mountains, with 90s and 100s in the deserts. Despite all this tropical moisture around, onshore flow and the marine layer will still be active, with an eddy spinning offshore, so the marine layer may be present this morning along the coast with passing tropical moisture overhead. Shower chances should drop off this evening, depending on how quickly the low moves out, but wouldn't be surprised if we still saw a couple build ups over our mountains Sunday, especially in the L.A and Ventura county mountains, with maybe an isolated shower or storm forming on the back end of the exiting low.
As we head into next week, our unsettled and well below normal weather will come to an end as a large ridge of high pressure begins to form over Arizona and gradually expand over the region. This will begin to warm things up each day this week, with a heat wave in the works by Wednesday into the weekend, with possibly some of the hottest temperatures we have seen so far this summer, which for the most part hasn't had any real heat waves yet. Highs by Wednesday next week should rise into the 90s and lower 100s for the coastal valleys, and to between 100-110 in the I.E, and 110-120 out in the lower as well as high deserts, and hang in that range til at least Saturday next weekend. It will be a dry heat at first, but eventually the high will center itself over the four corners by Friday which should open the door for some monsoon moisture to come back into the region for next weekend with some more mountain and desert thunderstorms to keep whats been a relatively active monsoon season so far going. Of course the details on this moisture aren't known at this time, so stay updated for the latest on the incoming heat next week, and stock up on some extra water and prepare to spend more time indoors, especially if you live inland!
Site Owner/Forecaster, Michael Mojarro
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Disclaimer: Socalweather.net is a privately run weather site and all forecast and possible advisories issued in no way are related to the National Weather Service or any government agency but from the sole guidance of forecaster Michael Mojarro, weather can not be controlled and all forecast are to be followed at your own will.
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