Mar 10, 2014
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Around a foot of snow fell in Fawnskin and other parts around Big Bear as seen in this photon taken on March 1st by Roger Vieau.
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**Forecast:Monday, March, 10th, 2014, 6:00pm:**
Winds have switched briefly onshore this afternoon and evening as a trough of low pressure goes by to our north. This may briefly re establish the marine layer tonight bringing some low clouds into the coast and some coastal valleys but this will be brief. As the trough up north drops south east into Nevada and our far eastern deserts a cutoff low will form and stall out somewhere near the Nevada/California border near Vegas. and will allow a lot of cold air to drop into the great basin. All this cold air will set things up for an unusually strong Santa Ana wind event for March Tuesday into Wednesday with winds gusting between 405-65mph, locally stronger in all favored areas of the mountains, as well as the Riverside and San bernardino areas of thge I.E. These winds will bring a very widespread temperature difference in the region. Since this event has a lot of cold air, the mountains will actually get very cold and drop to a good 5-10 degrees below normal Tuesday through Thursday with Wednesday being the coldest day. Highs up there will generally be in the 40s above 6000ft, but when the coldest air arrives Wednesday some ski resorts may struggle to reach 40 degrees, and a good 24-48 hour round of snow making looks like a good bet at local ski resorts which will help freshen things up on the slopes in Big Bear, and may give Mt High ski resort a slight chance of being able to make enough snow to re open. Lows at night up there will also be quite cod due to the cold air, with lower 10s and 20s, especially in mountain valleys that are wind protected(big bear valley). I do want to mention that this cutoff low will need to be watched, some computer runs are generating some precip for the San Bernardino mountains on Wednesday evening falling as snowfall showing kind of a wet Santa Ana event forming, this will be watched closely over the next 24 hours and snow may be added to the forecast there if need be, but for now im keeping things dry. Down the hill all that cold air will compress and warm up as it gets pushed down through the mountain canyons. This means very warm temperatures near the coast, even warmer then inland areas with highs in the lower 80s overall Tuesday, the cold air advection will keep inland valleys near and above 1500ft cooler in the 70s overall, but still well above normal. It looks like as that cutoff low forms near our border the ridge of high pressure may get knocked down a bit over our area Wednesday into Thursday, and cold air advection may get strong enough to actually drop temperatures in the I.E to a bit below normal Wednesday or Thursday in the middle and upper 60s, and cooler near the coast but still in the 70s as winds would remain offshore. If this cutoff low forms further to the east or north which half the computer runs are showing, cooling would be less and highs would remain in the upper 70s inland, and 80s along the coast, so this will be watched over the next 24 hours. Nights will be chilly in wind protected valleys of the I.E such as the Temecula valleys where low will likely drop into the 30s, but where the wind sis blowing low temperatures will be much warmer in the upper 40s and 50s. Winds should begin to die down late Wednesday with weak offshore winds continuing through the weekend.
High pressure will build Friday through Sunday which will bring some very warm temperatures to all areas as well as the mountains as cold air advection weakens. Highs Saturday and Sunday will near record levels, mainly near the coast with widespread 80s west of the mountains, and maybe even a few hot spots touching 90 degrees. In the mountains look for 60s overall. Then comes the good news. Long range computer have been consistently advertising a major pattern change taking place next week with our blocking ridge of high pressure collapsing once again as some very cold troughs drop down from Canada and the Gulf of Alaska. Things should drastically cool Monday next week as winds switch onshore. Current computer runs show a series of area of low pressure moving down the California coast and into central and southern California. It appears we could see a chance of rain and mountain snow as early as Tuesday next week, with a couple storms possible from the 20th through the end of the month and below normal temperatures. At the moment these storms look quite cold, especially for March standards, and could have snow levels below 4000ft. More details will be known as we head closer to the weekend, but things are looking good for some cooler weather and beneficial rains. Saty updated for the latest!
Site Owner/Forecaster, Michael Mojarro
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Disclaimer: Socalweather.net is a privately run weather site and all forecast and possible advisories issued in no way are related to the National Weather Service or any government agency but from the sole guidance of forecaster Michael Mojarro, weather can not be controlled and all forecast are to be followed at your own will.
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