399
FXUS66 KSGX 141903
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
1103 AM PST Sat Nov 14 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Below-normal temperatures prevail for the entirety of the
forecast period. A system arriving Monday/Tuesday will bring
additional light rain/snow and gusty winds, along with a marine
thunderstorm threat and coastal hazards. Another system late next
week may bring similar impacts but with lower confidence.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Another round of rainfall occurred early this morning, albeit
significantly lighter than what occurred on Friday. Most locations
saw anywhere from an additional 0.25-0.50" with the latter end of
that range more localized to the mountains and foothills. While it`s
still humid and cloudy out there this morning with a few measly
showers near the coastline, drier air will be filtering into the
area through the afternoon as weak upper level ridging builds in
behind the previous system. Slightly warmer temperatures can be
expected on Sunday, just about or slightly below normal, with partly
cloudy skies as we enjoy our break in between weather systems.
Sunday might be the warmest day of the week as multiple rounds of
larger upper level troughs/lows will advance through CA next week,
bringing multiple chances for rain and/or winds, along with
cooler/well-below-normal temperatures.

The first system of note is going to be a elongated trough
stretching from Canada down into Baja, poised to approach the
California Bight Monday afternoon. As it approaches, increasing
instability over the waters and near the coastline could produce
some isolated thunderstorms late Monday/early Tuesday, in a very
similar fashion to what occurred Friday morning. Should these
thunderstorms develop and be able to move ashore, intermittent heavy
rainfall and stronger winds will be possible, most likely pre-
sunrise Tuesday morning. CAPE values, while mostly unimpressive, do
indicate hot spots over the marine waters and into Orange County/IE
during this time frame. Soundings indicate that any storms will move
quickly, so no widespread flooding is expected. Outside of the
thunderstorm threat, some area showers will move across as the open
trough moves inland Tuesday morning, with less widespread rainfall
as experienced the past two days. Instead of a closed low like the
Friday storms, this system will remain an open trough and thus is
expected to have less moisture associated with it. While
precipitation amounts have been trending down, snow levels
associated with this colder system are expected to hover right
around 6000ft MSL Tue morning, allowing for some light accumulations
at only the highest elevations. Because of the lighter QPF, the
pattern does not currently support more than a trace/localized inch
or so of snow.

Any and all precipitation with this next system should move out
Tuesday afternoon, with another dry spell Wednesday with zonal flow
aloft. Temperatures won`t have much time to rebound before the
following system arrives, and high temperatures continue to slowly
fall through the week, bottoming out at 8-15 degrees below normal.
Global models have better agreement on the next system today than
they have the past several runs, indicating a deepening low will
move down along the CA coastline before trekking eastward across
Central CA late Thursday. Should this play pan out, the system may
bring more cold and windy conditions for SoCal with less rainfall
than previously expected. Still, much can change between now and
Thursday, with a slide further south providing more ample moisture
still a possibility late next week. Once better confidence is had on
this low, a more detailed picture can be provided. For now, have
maintained at least some rainfall in the Thursday-Friday time frame,
as well as light accumulating snow for the higher terrain of the San
Bernardino Mountains.

Additional mention and details of impacts with these systems next
week are discussed below in the beaches and marine discussions.
Please read these below.

&&

.AVIATION...
141800Z...Coast/Valleys...ISO-SCT -SHRA will linger through the
afternoon in San Diego County. VIS may be reduced 3-5 SM at times
with CIGS 1000-2500 ft MSL. FEW-SCT low clouds based 3-5 kft through
the coastal basin this afternoon will likely become BKN in coverage
tonight in San Diego County with SCT -SHRA just offshore. By late
Sunday morning, any lingering low clouds should scatter out with
mostly SKC and VFR for Sunday afternoon.

Mountains/Deserts...ISO -SHRA will continue into the afternoon in
San Diego County with cloud bases 3-6 kft MSL obscuring higher
terrain. Remaining low clouds over San Diego County mtns this
evening will slowly scatter out overnight with mostly VFR
conditions by Sunday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Westerly winds gusting to 20 kts and seas 5 to 9 feet continue this
morning. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through 4 PM this
afternoon. Winds and seas diminish late today into Sunday, before
increasing again Monday afternoon, with gusts up to 30 kts and seas
8-12 feet for Monday evening through Wednesday morning.

&&

.BEACHES...
A series of swells (15-17 seconds) from the west-northwest (280-290
degrees) will generate periods of elevated and high surf through
next week. The current northwest swell is producing surf of 4 to 7
feet with higher sets. Surf could peak around 6 to 10 feet later
today into Sunday. A High Surf Advisory is in effect until 10 AM
Sunday, with dangerous conditions for both swimming and surfing.

High surf will coincide with high tides peaking 6.2-6.5 feet around
noon today to produce minor coastal flooding, particularly along
west-facing beaches where surf is highest. A Coastal Flood Advisory
is in effect until 4 PM this afternoon. Surf begins to subside
Sunday afternoon but will remain elevated for west-facing beaches
into Monday morning. Another northwesterly swell will arrive on
Monday, extending the threat for high surf and strong rip currents
into mid-week.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory until 10 AM PST Sunday for Orange County
     Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Orange
     County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Coastal
     Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out
     to 10 nm-Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border
     Extending 10 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...Zuber
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...KW

NWS San Diego (SGX) Office