160
FXUS66 KSGX 251134
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
434 AM PDT Sun Oct 25 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Calm and warmer weather will occur through Wednesday. The warmest
days of the week will be today and Monday with marine layer clouds
returning by Tuesday or Wednesday morning near the coast. Cooler
and breezier with increased chances for precipitation entering
the picture by later in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...


...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

Mostly clear skies are seen on satellite this morning with
increasing mid-level clouds to our west over the Pacific. Models
show these clouds moving over the region late this afternoon through
the night, bringing a nice sunset for some.  High temperatures will
be slightly warmer today than yesterday. NBM chances are moderate to
high in seeing temperatures eclipse the 80 degree mark across inland
Orange County, the northern Inland Empire and inland valleys of SD
County. Temperatures in these areas cool a few degrees by Tuesday
and Wednesday, with other regions staying fairly similar from day to
day over the next few days. As pressure heights subtly lower, this
will increase the depth of the marine layer. Low clouds and patchy
fog may form offshore and near coastal areas as early as Tuesday
morning, with higher confidence on this occurring by Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning.

The weather pattern begins to shift by Thursday into next weekend.
Like yesterday, models continue to show an area of low pressure
entering the Pacific Northwest around Wednesday into Thursday, where
a large troughing pattern begins to set up across the West Coast.
This will bring a deeper marine layer and a cooling trend to the
region starting Thursday into next weekend. Increased cloud cover
with chances for precipitation may begin as early as late Thursday
night, though some model solutions have begun to push back rain
chances later in time. The broad troughing pattern will bring
temperatures back below normal with breezier conditions across the
mountains and deserts. This pattern may also bring little to no
rainfall at first, where Thursday night into Friday may be mostly
dry with only isolated light showers for some.

During this time period, model guidance begins to diverge on how the
direction/strength of the Pac NW low interacts with the possibility
of a shortwave with increased subtropical moisture that may poise
itself somewhere to our south or west over the Pacific.  Details in
where these systems develop and trek will be key in determining how
much precipitation falls across the region. Does the Pac NW low stay
further north and the potential subtropical shortwave stays further
to the south, giving us minimal rainfall? Do they combine forces,
giving us a wetter scenario? Something in between? Whatever occurs,
confidence continues to increase for wetter and cooler conditions
for the Halloween weekend, so make sure to continue to monitor the
latest forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
251100Z...Generally VFR conditions across the region through the
period. 20% chance for very patchy low clouds based 500-1000 ft MSL
over nearshore waters and along the coastline tonight. No impacts
expected for coastal TAF sites at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds gusts near 20 knots possible in the outer coastal waters
Monday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, no hazardous marine
conditions are expected through Thursday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Morning high tides will create significant coastal flooding starting
today. Tides will be anywhere from 1 to 1.7 feet above astronomical
predictions. Morning high tides may exceed 7.5 feet this morning and
will approach and potentially exceed 8 feet starting Monday morning.
While surf will not be elevated, these will be near if not record-
breaking tides. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for the entire
Orange and San Diego coastline this morning through Thursday morning.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM PDT Thursday for Orange County
     Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...APR
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...KW

NWS San Diego (SGX) Office