295
FXUS66 KSGX 042322
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
422 PM PDT Sat Apr 4 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry conditions will continue into Sunday. Temperatures
will fluctuate a few degrees each day through mid-week, but mostly
stay above average for this time of year. Low clouds and fog
expected Sunday morning and again Monday morning along the coast.
Pattern change expected for the end of next week, with cooler,
windier, and wetter conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

...UPDATED 00Z AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS BELOW...

Warm and dry conditions will continue for Sunday although the
coast is expected to see a few degrees of cooling, with the
mountains and deserts warming a few degrees. Areas of fog are
expected to become more widespread overnight into Sunday morning.
Fog may be locally dense, most likely near higher coastal terrain.
Low clouds and fog are expected Sunday night into Monday morning
with local high resolution guidance indicating a slight deepening
of the marine layer with the passage of a weak shortwave trough.
That deepening will keep the fog with the lowest visibility
confined to the coastal mesas/higher terrain.

Highs on Monday will be a few degrees cooler across the area due to
that shortwave trough. Breezy westerly winds may develop over the
mountains and locally into the deserts, but no impacts expected.
Weak ridging will build over California on Tuesday, which will
bring a degree or two of warming to some inland locations. The
ridge will quickly be pushed aside on Wednesday as stronger
troughing sets up over the Eastern Pacific.

There remains quite a bit of uncertainty in the ensemble guidance in
regards to the timing of the low`s passage and expected
precipitation amounts. Members of the GEFS are showing a quicker
passages of the low with the bulk of the precipitation centered on
Thursday/Friday, while the majority of the ensemble members of the
ECMWF are showing a slower progression and the bulk of the
precipitation centered over next weekend. Both of the global
models have quite a bit of spread in precipitation amounts as
well. In addition to timing of rainfall, the forward progression
of the low will influence when the strongest winds and coldest
conditions will occur. It`s possible the mountains will see some
late season snow out of this system. There still remains
considerable uncertainty in snow levels with NBM guidance
indicating snow levels may range from 6500-8000 feet Thursday
through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
042320Z...Mostly clear skies through this evening. Chances
increasing for low clouds 400-800 ft MSL to impact coastal areas
after 09Z Sun, best chances (60-70% chance) for southern SD Co VCTY
KSAN/KCRQ. Lower chances (20-30% chance) for cigs to impact KSNA.
Vis restrictions of 2-5SM in BR possible, with restrictions 1 SM or
less near higher coastal terrain. Any low clouds and vis
restrictions should scatter 16-18Z Sun with BKN-SCT clouds over 20K
ft MSL for much of Sunday elsewhere.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions expected through Wednesday. Winds and
seas may increase late next week due to an incoming weather system.
Low confidence in details.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE...APR

NWS San Diego (SGX) Office