239
FXUS66 KSGX 101943
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
1143 AM PST Sat Jan 10 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate to locally strong Santa Ana winds will continue along
the coastal mountain slopes, foothills, and into the valleys
through Monday. Periods of weaker Santa Ana winds will continue
through the remainder of next week. A warming trend develops this
weekend, with temperatures peaking around the middle of next
week. Wednesday and Thursday will likely be the warmest days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Clear skies region-wide this morning as moderate easterly Santa Ana
winds continue to funnel through west facing slopes and passes. The
strongest upper level northerly winds have moved eastward and the
gusts have reduced considerably in the past 24 hours over the Santa
Ana and San Bernardino County foothills. Gusts are now 40-55 mph
around the Cajon Pass and mostly below 40 mph though the Inland
Empire and Orange County inland areas.

The surface pressure gradient between Southern California and areas
a few hundred miles east and northeast of us remains strong,
allowing for elevated winds to continue for the areas mentioned
above as well as strong East winds over the San Diego County
mountains. Gusts 50-65 mph and locally higher are expected for the
San Diego County mountain western slopes near peaks and passes
through early Monday. Winds reduce slightly thereafter but remain
strong with periods of gusts to 50 mph remain possible through at
least Wednesday, as easterly 700 mb winds remain robust. There is
some uncertainty regarding the Santa Ana winds after Wednesday,
although most model guidance suggests a continuation of the offshore
flow. The CW3E WRF maintains weak to moderate northeast and east
pressure gradients between SoCal and the interior through next
Friday. Medium range models continue to highlight modest mid-level
easterly flow over our region until at least next weekend.

Due to the abundance of dry air at the surface, nighttime
temperatures will drop into the 30s in wind-sheltered valleys
tonight and potentially Sunday night. At the same time, high
temperatures will be increasing a few degrees each day through
Wednesday. Lowland temperatures top out around 70 degrees today and
are eventually forecast to top out around 80 degrees Wednesday
afternoon.

WPC 500mb height clusters are in good agreement that the strong
upper longwave ridge over the Pacific Northwest will continue to
amplify northward. While the ridge axis will continue to be lined up
along the west coast, SoCal may be far enough south enough to see
heights come down slightly with an outside chance for an upper
cutoff low to develop over northwest Mexico and bring down
temperatures near average and enhance cloud cover. Nevertheless,
there is moderate confidence for peak temperatures next week to
occur Wednesday and Thursday, then cool off slightly into the
weekend.

As long as the offshore flow persists, relative humidity will
remain low. Daytime RH drops into the 10-20% range through at
least Tuesday , with overnight recoveries capped at only 35-40%
for most of the region. Fire danger will be elevated as a result
although limited as the fuel moisture levels are high from recent
rains.

&&

.AVIATION...
101650Z...Coast/Valleys/Mountains...Mostly clear skies prevailing.
Northeast and east winds gusting generally 35-50 kts along coastal
slopes. Gusts locally reaching 60 kts or higher along coastal slopes
in San Diego County until 02Z Sat. Gusts 25-40 kts downwind of the
Cajon/Banning passes in the Inland Empire and into parts of Inland
Orange County and the San Diego Valleys. Winds picking back up and
becoming more widespread after 16Z Sun to around that of this
morning. Periods of LLWS and moderate up and downdrafts downwind of
coastal slopes (i.e. KONT, KSNA, KSBD). Offshore wind pattern
continues through the remainder of the weekend.

Deserts...VFR conditions through the period. Elevated northeast
winds staying mostly confined to mountain slopes with gusts 20-30
kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Northeast to east winds will sporadically gust to 20 to 25 knots
through this weekend. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions
expected through Wednesday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory until 1 PM PST Sunday for Orange County Inland
     Areas-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino and
     Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County
     Valleys-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills.

     High Wind Warning until 1 PM PST Sunday for San Bernardino
     County Mountains-San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio
     Pass near Banning.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Westerink
AVIATION/MARINE...APR

NWS San Diego (SGX) Office