668
FXUS66 KLOX 142203
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
203 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026

.SYNOPSIS...14/202 PM.

Multiple periods of light to moderate rain are expected next
week. Dry conditions will prevail through Sunday, with the next
round of wet conditions set for Sunday night into Monday night,
followed by Wednesday night into Thursday night. The risk of
significant impacts and flooding exists with the second storm
system as moderate to heavy rain will be possible. Temperatures
will remain at or below normal. Very large surf will bring coastal
impacts well into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...14/156 PM.

Sunny to partly cloudy skies prevailed across the region early
this afternoon with little change expected thru sunset. High temps
today are expected to be about 3-6 deg cooler-than-normal across
the region. Breezy onshore winds will persist this afternoon for
the most part, although could be somewhat gusty out of the W and
NW at times on the Central Coast.

For tonight and Sunday, the weak upper level ridge overhead will
keep the area dry. High temperatures on Sunday will bump up a
couple degrees with widespread upper 60s to mid 70s.

Beginning Sunday evening, the next cold front will approach the
area. This front will sweep across the area Sunday night through
Monday night with a decent chance of rain for many areas. There is
also a slight chance of thunderstorms for southeastern L.A.
County later Monday night as the tail end of the front moves
through. Overall, though, this front does not look too impressive.
Current QPF forecasts are very meager with about a third of an
inch or less expected across the area (with the best totals across
northwest San Luis Obispo county and eastern San Gabriel Mtns).
Snow levels look to drop to around 5500 feet Monday evening/night,
so a dusting of snow would not be out of the question above that
level. Northwesterly winds are expected to increase across the I-5
Corridor and the Santa Ynez Range Monday night with a 30-40%
chance of advisory-level winds (especially through the I-5
Corridor).

A drier NW flow will move into the region behind the front Mon
night into Tue with clearing skies and cool temps. Highs on Tue
should turn out to be about 5-10 deg below normal for most areas.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...14/159 PM.

For the extended period, models are in generally good agreement
with regard to a fairly significant storm system expected to
impact the area mainly between Wed evening and Thu night.

A Pacific storm front is forecast to approach the Central Coast
on Wed with rain spreading into SLO/SBA Counties in the afternoon.
Otherwise, increasing clouds and well below normal temps can be
expected across the forecast area thru the day Wed.

The main front will move slowly through the forecast area Wed
night thru Thu, then there will be lingering showers behind the
main front Thu night. At this time, the ECMWF is a bit faster with
this front than the GFS. So, confidence in timing remains
moderate, but confidence is increasing in the potential for
significant widespread rainfall developing. Looking at QPF
amounts, this particular frontal passage could be a bit more
impressive with deterministic models indicating rainfall totals in
the 1-3 inch range, with local amounts of 3-5 inches not out of
the question along favored south-facing slopes. Ensemble forecasts
also seem to be leaning towards a bit more impressive frontal
system than previous ones. Given the potential for some decent
southerly flow, orographic effects could easily generate such
totals across the foothills. Of course, a lot could change between
now and then, so expected totals could change noticeably.

On Friday, there may be some lingering showers in the morning
hours. However, the balance of the day is expected to be dry. Weak
upper level ridging will bring dry conditions to the area for
Sat. Temps will remain well below normal for Fri with only a
slight warm-up for Sat.

&&

.AVIATION...14/1753Z.

At 1719Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

Overall, moderate to high confidence in 18Z TAF Package. LIFR
conditions likely to persist at KPRB for the next hour or two.
Otherwise, CAVU conditions expected at all sites thru fcst pd.

KLAX...High confidence in CAVU TAF. Any east wind component
expected to remain below 7 kts.

KBUR...High confidence in CAVU TAF. No wind issues expected.

&&

.MARINE...14/854 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Today through Wednesday, high confidence in a
combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas.
Dangerously large seas are expected to peak today (18-25 feet,
locally higher with a secondary peak expected on Monday (13-19
feet). Additionally, there is a 30-50% chance of Gale force winds
on Monday and Tuesday - most likely south of Point Conception.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in
current forecast. Today through Wednesday, a combination of SCA
level winds and seas are expected. Dangerously large seas are
expected to peak today (14-21 feet) with a secondary peak on
Monday (11-16 feet).

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through this afternoon,
high confidence in SCA level winds, mainly across western sections
with SCA level seas developing. For Sunday, winds and seas are
expected to drop below SCA levels. For Monday through Wednesday,
high confidence in SCA level winds developing with a 50% chance of
SCA level seas. Additionally, there is a 30-40% chance of Gale
force winds developing.

With the expected large west-northwesterly swell this weekend,
there is the threat of dangerous breaking waves at Ventura and
especially Morro Bay harbor entrances. Refer to the Marine Weather
Statement which has been issued (MWSLOX) for more details.

Periodic rain can be expected through the middle of next week.

&&

.BEACHES...14/854 AM.

A series of very large, long period west-northwesterly swells
will impact the coastline of southwest California through at least
Tuesday of next week, creating large surf and dangerous
conditions at all coasts. Largest surf will be focused along west
to northwest facing shores and surf is expected to peak today
with a potential secondary increase Monday. Moderate to significant
beach erosion and shallow flooding of sea water over low-lying
beach walkways, parking lots, and roads is likely, especially in
the morning hours near high tide. Large surf will create dangerous
rip currents, along with strong long shore currents, potential
sneaker waves, and large shore pound. Impacts will be less for
south-facing shores.

The highest risk will be for the Central Coast with potential for
localized damage to the most vulnerable areas - such as to piers,
roads, and structures. High Surf and Coastal Flood WARNINGS are in
effect for the Central Coast with impacts such as breaking waves
at Morro Bay Harbor entrance and Pismo and Cayucos Piers, as well
as widespread sandy beach flooding - including Oceano Dunes State
Park and other vulnerable low lying areas (especially during high
tide). Surf heights are expected to reach 18-25 feet, highest at
west-northwest facing beaches.

For west-facing beaches in LA/Ventura counties, high surf
advisories are in effect with high surf expected to continue
through at least Tuesday. There may be a relative "lull" in the
surf Sunday before the second swell arrives, but surf and rip
currents will still be hazardous. Surf is expected to peak
today and there is a low chance for WARNING level surf at Ventura
County beaches. Hazardous breaking waves are expected at Ventura
Harbor entrance today - refer to MWSLOX for more details.
Additionally, moderate coastal flooding is likely today around
high tide in the late morning, thus Coastal Flood Advisories have
been issued.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Tuesday afternoon
      for zone 87. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Coastal Flood Warning in effect until 6 PM PST this evening
      for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Warning in effect until 3 AM PST Sunday for zones
      340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 4 AM PST Sunday for zones
      349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 4 PM PST this
      afternoon for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Tuesday for zones
      354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Wednesday for
      zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Sunday for zone
      650. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Sirard
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...RAT/Black
BEACHES...Black/lewis/RAT
SYNOPSIS...Sirard

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office