341
FXUS66 KLOX 150950
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
250 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026

.SYNOPSIS...15/249 AM.

A moderate to strong Santa Ana Wind will bring widespread strong
winds and critical fire weather conditions to much of Southwest
California through Saturday. Additionally, very warm temperatures
bring a high risk of heat illness to all coastal areas. A
significant cool down with a chance of widespread rain is expected
next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...15/248 AM.

All systems go for the first Santa Ana of the season and it is
going to be a strong one. At the upper levels a 592 dam ridge will
nose into Humboldt County while a pos tilt trof pinches off a
retrograding low that will set up over Yuma. This will set up NE
upper level flow from LA county north to Monterey county. At the
sfc building high pressure in the Great Basin will bring 4 to 8 mb
of offshore flow from the north and the east (strongest from the
east). The winds will exhibit a typical diurnal pattern starting
to ramp up a few hours before dawn peaking mid morning and then
tapering off slightly in the afternoon and evening. The winds will
occur all the standard Santa Ana Wind Corridor (~10 miles either
side of a line from Newhall to Mugu NAS. Today`s strongest winds
will be in the 40 to 50 mph range with isolated gusts to 60 mph
across favored mtn canyons and ridgetops. Friday will be the peak
of the event with wind speed about 10 mph greater than today`s.
Much of LA/VTA counties are covered by wind warnings or advisories
please see the product LAXNPWLOX for details. The downsloping
winds will create very dangerous fire weather conditions as well.
Please see the detailed Fire Weather Discussion below for details.

Totally sunny skies and downsloping winds will combine to bring 4
to 8 degrees of warming across the csts/vlys (3 to 6 further
inland) with an additional 3 to 6 degrees (1 to 3 further
inland) likely on Friday. By Friday cst/vly temps will be in the
upper 80s and 90s with a 10 percent chc of a few 100 degree
readings. Heat advisories are in effect to cover these 10 to 15
degree warmer than normal temps.

Offshore trends and a weakening of the upper support will bring
weaker winds to the area but some advisory level gusts are still
likely in the windiest areas. The offshore push from the north
will weaken more than the one from the east and this will tilt the
winds in a more easterly direction which may make some areas that
did not see much wind Thu or Fri windier. The weaker offshore flow
will allow for a return of a weak sea breezy and this will cool
the csts and to a lesser degree the vlys by 2 to 4 degrees.
Further inland there will be little change in temps.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...15/231 AM.

Upper level support collapses on Sunday. Offshore flow will remain
by it will be down to 1 to 2 mb. The much weaker offshore flow
will bring about 3 to 5 degrees of cooling (4 to 8 degrees across
the Central Coast). Even with the cooling max temps will end up 4
to 8 degrees above normal.

More cooling is in store on Monday as an upper low moves down the
coast. Hgts will fall from 580 dam Sunday afternoon to 576 dam
Monday afternoon. Actual onshore flow will develop and will
increase through the day. Some morning marine layer clouds may
even develop over the Central Coast. Max temps will fall 4 to 8
degrees. This will bring max temps down to near normals.

Forecast confidence drops off quickly starting Tuesday. The cold
upper low is forecast to continue down the coast and into and over
Srn CA during the time period. There is still much mdl and
ensemble disagreement on the timing and track of this system. A
more inland track would limit the chc/amt of rain while a more
westward over ocean track would bring increased chcs of rain and
more of it. Timing is very uncertain. Do think some sort of rain
will fall during the Tue to Thu time period but due to all of the
uncertainty no more than a 30 percent chc during any 12 hour
period. Early and certainly subject to change rainfall totals call
for around a quarter to half inch for the entire period. Good
confidence in much cooler conditions with highs mostly in the
upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...15/0949Z.

At 0832Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor inversion.

High confidence in CAVU TAFs, moderate confidence in winds. Timing
and strength of gusty NE winds may be off by 2-3 hours and 10kt
respectively.

KLAX...High confidence in CAVU TAF. Any east wind component
will be AOB 7 kts 12Z-16Z.

KBUR...High confidence in CAVU TAF. Moderate confidence in winds,
and N to NE winds may begin as early as 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...15/248 AM.

Gusty northeast to easterly winds will affect the coastal waters
over the next few days. Moderate to strong Santa Ana winds will
affect the waters south of Point Conception today through
Saturday morning, and the near shore waters will see gusty
easterly winds Friday, possibly reaching Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) levels.

These hazardous Santa Ana NE-E winds will be focused from Ventura
to Santa Monica and out past Anacapa Island starting today, and
conditions could also become hazardous across the San Pedro
Channel Friday morning with a 25% chc of 25 kt gusts at Avalon
Harbor. The worst conditions are expected Friday morning, and Gale
Watches have been issued to target these waters. Refer to MWWLOX
for more details. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) may be needed for the
nearshore waters along the Central Coast Friday morning due to
gusty offshore winds.

There is a solid signal for a trough early to mid next week
which could bring hazardous boating conditions along with
rain chances to our coastal waters. Will monitor this system.

Long period swells from the west and the south are affecting the
coastal waters, and can create a confused sea state. This can
make boating more challenging and dangerous, especially for small
vessels.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...14/909 AM.

Offshore flow will steadily increase each day through Thursday or Friday,
then weaken over the weekend. During the Thursday and Friday peak,
northeast winds of 20 to 40 mph with gusts to 40 to 60 mph will be common
over the wind prone areas of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, with
localized gusts of 60 to 70 mph in the mountains. Winds will be unusually
widespread on Friday, when much of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo will
experience a few hours windy conditions, especially the interior
mountains where winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts of 30 to 40 mph are
expected. Meanwhile, the air will rapidly warm and dry. High temperatures
between 85 and 95 will be common by Friday, warmest near the coast where
the risk for heat illness is high. Minimum humidities will generally lower
into the 5 to 15 percent range by Friday, with poor overnight recoveries
starting Thursday.

All of this will add up to a high risk for large fires and rapid
fire growth over most of the area, especially over Los Angeles and
Ventura Counties as well as interior San Luis Obispo and Santa
Barbara Counties where Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches
are in place. While some areas received rain earlier this week,
the dry day today will largely remove any benefiting effects on
the fuels.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 6 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT
      Friday for zones 88-354-355-358-362-370>374-376-377. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT
      Saturday for zones
      340-341-346-347-349-350-354-355-362-366>368. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 2 PM PDT this
      afternoon for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Wind Warning in effect from 6 AM this morning to 8 PM
      PDT Friday for zones 369-375-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Red Flag Warning in effect from 6 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT
      Saturday for zones 288-354-355-358-362-369>382-548. (See LAXRFWLOX).
     Red Flag Warning in effect from 3 AM to 6 PM PDT Friday for
      zones 345-353. (See LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM
      PDT Friday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from late tonight through Friday
      afternoon for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT early this
      morning for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 AM to 5 PM PDT Friday
      for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Lewis
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Phillips/Black
FIRE...RK
SYNOPSIS...Lewis

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office