658
FXUS66 KLOX 101726
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
926 AM PST Sat Jan 10 2026

.SYNOPSIS...10/910 AM.

Gusty Santa Ana winds will continue through at least the weekend,
mainly across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. There will be a
slow warming trend into next week, though overnight lows will
remain chilly.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...10/925 AM.

***UPDATE***

Yet another day of Santa Ana winds across portions of LA/Ventura
Counties. Peak winds overnight reached over 80mph in the San
Gabriel Mountains and 65 mph throughout the Santa Susanna
Mountains. In the Santa Monica Mountains and down towards the
Malibu coast above 300 feet elevation wind gusts up to 58mph were
reported. And across valleys and the Oxnard/Camarillo areas wind
gusts were generally in the 30-50mph range.

For today, offshore gradients are up over 2mb from yesterday and
most models project another 1-2mb increase tonight. Models also
show more veering of the winds which will result in increased
winds in some areas and less wind in others. Not expecting any
significant changes in the forecast or the current slate of wind
advisories and warnings.

***From Previous Discussion***

Upper level ridging over northern CA will take on more and more of
a positive tilt. This will bring more and more upper level support
to the Santa Ana and will shut off the strong winds coming through
the more northerly oriented passes and canyons. On Monday the
upper level flow turns back to the NE and weakens.

At the sfc there will be 4 to 5 mb of offshore flow from the north
and 6 to 7 mb of offshore flow from the east. The offshore peak is
forecast to be mid morning Sunday.

The winds today and Sunday will be similar and will reach warning
levels (60 to 70 mph) in the mtns (including the Santa Monicas
and Santa Susanas) with advisory level gusts (40 to 55 mph) across
the western vlys of LA county, the eastern vlys of VTA county,
the VTA county coast and the western portion of Malibu to the VTA
county line. The winds will be much lighter across SLO And SBA
counties (although gusts to 35 mph are likely over the Santa
Lucias) as well as southern LA county. Both the sfc gradients and
upper level support will be weaker on Monday so the wind will be
weaker with just a 40 percent chc of advisory level gusts in some
mtn areas.

Overnight lows are coming in a little cooler than fcst right now
and it is likely that current low temperature fcst for tonight in
the wind sheltered vlys is a little too high. Temps will be
evaluated again after this mornings readings come in. But in
general lows will have a split personality with windy areas coming
in warmer than normal and wind free areas seeing much lower than
normal temps. The warming air mass will help to mitigate some of
the cooling Sunday night and Monday morning.

Friday`s warming trend will continue through the period with 3 to
6 degrees of warming slated for today, 2 to 4 degrees Sunday and
an additional 1 to 2 degrees on Monday. Max temps will end up near
normal today and will rise to 2 to 4 locally 6 degrees over normal
by Monday when max temps across the csts/vlys will be in the upper
60s and lower 70s.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...10/1208 AM.

Picture Postcard weather will continue through the xtnd period and
beyond. Upper level ridging or an actual upper high will be over
the state through the period. Hgts will be well above normal
ranging from 578 dam to 585 dam with peaking Wed and Thu. Offshore
flow will continue through the entire period. While there will be
gusty canyon winds each morning they will most likely not reach
advisory levels. Look for 2 to 4 degrees of warming Tuesday then
1 to 3 additional degrees on Wednesday. Thursday will see little
change in temps (SLO county will be the exception with several
more degrees of warming). Wed/Thu highs will be about 10 degrees
over normal with cst/vly highs mostly in the 70s but with a few 80
degree readings in the warmest vly locations. Overnight lows will
continue below normal in wind sheltered areas due to the dry air
and clear skies.

Both AI versions on the GFS and EC show no rain through the 21st
and likely the 24th.

&&

.AVIATION...10/1059Z.

At 0700Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surfaced
based inversion with a top at 1200 ft and a temperature of 14 C.

High confidence in CAVU TAFs. Lgt-ocnl mdt turbc and lgt LLWS over
and near to hier trrn.

KLAX...High confidence in CAVU TAF. Lgt LLWS possible through the
period. No significant east wind component expected (372-374-376>378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Warning remains in effect until 1 PM PST Sunday for
      zones 369-375-379-380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 11
      AM PST Sunday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 PM PST this afternoon
      for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until noon PST Sunday for
      zones 655-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Black/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...MW/CC

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office