606
FXUS66 KLOX 042043
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
143 PM PDT Sat Apr 4 2026

.SYNOPSIS...04/114 PM.

Significant warming is expected through Sunday as gusty Santa Ana
winds continue over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. A cooling
trend will begin Monday with temperatures back to near normal
around mid week. There is a chance of rain sometime between
Thursday and Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...04/143 PM.

Gusty Santa Ana winds are brining warm and very dry conditions to
the region today. The Santa Ana winds have focused across the
typical wind prone corridors of LA/Ventura counties with wind
gusts between 30 and 50 mph observed today. During the past hour,
starting to see a slight weakening of the offshore winds and
this downward trend will continue through the afternoon hours.
Current wind advisories are in effect until 3 pm today, and
plan to let those expire at that time. Within the next hour,
we are also expecting an onshore wind reversal across the Ventura
county coastal plain.

The overall air mass is warmer than yesterday, and we are
seeing temperatures considerably warmer than yesterday, with
highs mostly in the 80s to around 90 degrees. High resolution
model data shows the warmest temperatures today (around 90
degrees focused) across the Ventura county coastal plain as well
as the western San Fernando valley and San Gabriel Valley. The
offshore winds have also brought significant drying to the region
today, with many areas seeing humidities in the single digits. As
a result, the combination of gusty offshore winds, warm
temperatures, and very low humidities will continue to bring the
risk of fast moving grass fires this afternoon (mainly over the
interior), with conditions similar to what we saw yesterday with
the Crown Fire near Acton. For tonight, some of the latest model
guidance showing a weak eddy circulation developing, brining the
potential for some marine layer low clouds and patchy dense fog
returning to portions of the LA county coast by Sunday morning.

On Sunday morning, a weak offshore breeze will continue across
the interior of LA/Ventura counties. By Sunday afternoon/evening,
a more pronounced return of onshore winds are anticipated across
the entire forecast area. While the earlier sea breeze will likely
bring some cooling to the coast and coastal valleys, the further
inland areas will remain very warm, with possibly an additional
1 or 2 degrees of warming.

Looking into Monday/Tuesday, there will be increased onshore flow
with more extensive low clouds and fog returning to the coastal
plain and coastal valleys. This will lead to further cooling
across coastal and coastal valley areas, but the interior will
remain warm.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...04/141 PM.

Little change in temperatures expected on Wednesday with a
continuation of onshore flow and marine layer influence near the
coast.

Models continue to indicate at least a 70% chance of rain area-
wide sometime between Thursday and Saturday. A majority of the
solutions are projecting rainfall totals in the 0.25 to 1.00 inch
range, but some of the ensemble members (especially ECMWF
ensembles) are showing some solutions exceeding 1.00 inch. There
are some models delaying the rain until Friday or Saturday, but
lower confidence in these solutions. This system is associated
with a closed low pressure system. If the closed low does move
over the forecast area next weekend (as many solutions indicate),
the associated cooler air aloft (with 500 mb temperatures around
-23 degrees Celsius) will likely bring some instability which could
bring a convective element to the storm, especially considering
the higher April sun angle.

&&

.AVIATION...04/1556Z.

At 1600Z at KLAX, there was a surface-based inversion. The top
of the inversion was 1900 feet with a temperature of 21 degrees
Celsius.

Overall for the 18Z TAF package, high confidence in CAVU
conditions through the period for KPRB, KSBP, KSMX, KSBA, KOXR,
KCMA, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and KWJF.

For KLAX, KSMO and KLGB, high confidence in CAVU conditions
through this evening, but low confidence in forecast return of
CIG/VSBY restrictions after 10Z.

Moderate offshore winds will continue through early afternoon with
light LLWS and turbulence likely over the foothills and mountains.

KLAX...Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. High confidence in
CAVU conditions through this evening. For tonight, there is a 50%
chance that CIG/VSBY restrictions do not develop in the 10Z-18Z
time frame. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in 18Z TAF as CAVU conditions are expected
through the period.

&&

.MARINE...04/1221 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Today through Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas
remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. For Monday
through Wednesday, high confidence in SCA level winds. On
Thursday, there is a 30-50% chance of SCA level winds.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through Sunday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For
Monday through Wednesday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level
winds, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. On Thursday,
there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and
evening hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. This afternoon through Sunday,
high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For
Monday through Tuesday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level
winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel. For
Wednesday through Thursday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level
winds across all of the southern Inner Waters. Additionally, there
will be a 20-30% chance of GALE FORCE winds Wednesday night.

There will be a chance of dense fog tonight and Sunday morning
south of the Channel Islands.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zones 88-354-355-358-371-372-374-380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for
      zones 369-375-379. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Gomberg
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...Gomberg

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office