242
FXUS66 KLOX 251638
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
938 AM PDT Tue Aug 25 2026

.SYNOPSIS...25/222 AM.

Very hot conditions will dominate the week, with a high risk for
heat illness. Patchy night through morning low clouds and locally
dense fog will be confined to some coastal areas. Significant
cooling is likely over the weekend but it will remain warm.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...25/912 AM.

***UPDATE***

The heat is on, especially south of Pt Conception today and
migrating north Wednesday and Thursday. Heat advisories transition
to Warnings south of Pt Conception today at 10am and advisories
going into effect for the Central Coast Wednesday and Thursday as
onshore flow weakens there.

One potential wrinkle for Thursday is the possibility for
increasing mid and high clouds from decaying tropical storms off
Mexico. Can`t rule out an isolated shower or two, and depending on
the extent of the cloud coverage it could cut into some some of
the high temperatures.

Here is a list of the current high temperature records today:

Downtown LA......102 in 1926
LAX..............84 in 1981
Long Beach.......103 in 1981
Hawthorne........87 in 1015
Santa Monica.....83 in 2005
Burbank..........107 in 1981
Van Nuys.........107 in 2010
Woodland Hills...115 in 1985
Palmdale.........108 in 1931
Lancaster........107 in 2010
Camarillo........85 in 1931
Oxnard...........85 in 1931
Santa Barbara....85 in 1985

***From Previous Discussion***

The next three days will be the peak of the heat event. A large
and very warm upper high will sit atop of NM/AZ and will bring
593-594 dam hgts to the area. Onshore gradients will be weak and
even offshore from the north in the mornings. The marine layer
will be shallow and will not xtnd very far inland. Marine layer
stratus will most likely to affect the Central Coast where some
dense fog is possible due to the shallowness of the marine layer.
There are, however, some signals that an eddy will develop in
which case there will be more low clouds south of Pt Conception.

Max temps will range from 100 to 106 degrees all three days
across the vlys, lower mtns elevations and far interior. The
western San Fernando Vly will be warmer still with max temps from
106 to 112 degrees. The lack of a strong onshore gradient in the
afternoon will allow the inland areas of the cstl regions to warm
into the 90s with even some 100 to 101 degree readings possible.
In addition the the day time highs running 10 to 15 degrees above
normal the overnight low will also be 6 to 12 degrees above normal
as subsidence from the upper high sets up a strong and hot
inversion right at vly/foothill elevations. On Wednesday a the
usual onshore push across the Central Coast will disappear and
max temps there will rise 8 to 12 degrees with many locations
reaching into the 90s.

Almost all of the area is blanketed by Extreme Heat Warnings and
Advisories. Please see the product LAXNPWLOX for all details.
Residents need to take precautions to avoid heat related dangers
when outside.

Sundowner winds will affect southern Santa Barbara County through
the week, and should increase some each night. Wind Advisories
might be needed tonight and/or Wednesday Night.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...25/223 AM.

A substantial trof will move into the west coast and push the
upper high to the south. The flow will slowly switch to the SW
during the period and hgts will fall to 588 dam. Some offshore
flow may persist in the morning esp from the north, but the
afternoon onshore push to the east will increase.

Most max temps will fall 1 to 2 degrees on Friday (except for the
Central Coast where better onshore flow will bring 3 to 6 degrees
of cooling). This small amount of cooling will not be enough to
eliminate the heat risk and all warnings and advisories will
continue. Look for 5 to 10 degrees of cooling across the csts/vly
on Saturday as the trof and onshore flow really begin to affect
the weather (the mtns and far interior will see 2 to 4 degrees of
cooling). On Sunday all areas will cool 3 to 6 degrees and this
will bring many areas to or even below normal max temps. 2 to 4
additional degrees of cooling is likely next Monday and this will
reduce coastal max temps to the 70s (upper 60s/lower 70s Central
Coast) and in the mid 80s to mid 90s for the vlys.

&&

.AVIATION...25/1637Z.

At 1615Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1100 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was 3100 feet with a temperature of 29 degrees
Celsius.

For 18Z TAF package, high confidence in KPRB, KSBA, KBUR, KVNY,
KPMD and KWJF.

For KSMX and KSBP, there is 20-30% chance of LIFR/VLIFR conditions
08Z-17Z.

For KOXR, KCMA, KSMO, KLAX and KLGB, there is a 20% chance of
IFR/LIFR conditions 08Z-17Z.

KLAX...High confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 20% chance of
IFR/LIFR conditions 08Z-17Z. No significant easterly wind
component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in 18Z TAF as CAVU conditions are expected
through the period.

&&

.MARINE...25/659 AM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Today
through Saturday, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds are
expected across all of the Outer Waters. Additionally, seas will
hover near SCA levels through the week.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in
current forecast. Today through Saturday, SCA level winds are
expected each afternoon and evening. Additionally, seas will
approach SCA levels by late this week.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. For a majority of the southern
Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below
SCA levels through Saturday. The only exception will be the
western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 60-80%
chance of SCA level winds through Saturday in the late afternoon
and evening hours.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory in effect until 10 AM PDT this morning for
      zones 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Friday for
      zones 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM PDT
      Thursday for zones 341-347-348. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Heat Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT Friday for zones
      342>345. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Red Flag Warning in effect until 3 PM PDT Friday for zones
      345-353-375>380. (See LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Wednesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office