030
FXUS65 KVEF 142008
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
108 PM PDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Chances for terrain-based, afternoon and evening convection will
  continue through the end of the week.

* Near-to-slightly above normal temperatures will continue through
  midweek, with temperatures decreasing slightly heading into the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Tuesday.

A band of clouds extending from eastern San Bernardino County,
through Clark County, and into Lincoln County will will limit
daytime heating and convective potential through the central portion
of our forecast area. ACARs soundings illustrate the lack of
instability nicely with a whopping 50 to 60 J/kg of CAPE in the Las
Vegas Valley. The best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be
in Mohave County, across the southern Great Basin, and in the
mountains of Inyo County, where mesoanalysis reveals 500 to 1,000
J/kg of surface based CAPE. Storms will favor areas of higher
terrain for development, decaying as they move off the terrain.
Lightning, strong outflow winds, and heavy rain capable of resulting
in flash flooding will be the primary hazards with any convection
that develops. Storms will diminish after sunset, with additional
rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected each afternoon through
the end of the week.

The Four Corners High will expand westward as we approach midweek,
allowing temperatures to increase to 3 to 5 degrees above-normal on
Wednesday and Thursday. Though we`ve seen these temperatures already
this year, we haven`t seen these temperatures with humidity. Hot
daytime temperatures, warm overnight temperatures, and monsoonal
humidity result in widespread Moderate (Level 2 of 4) with pockets
of High (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk on both days. It should be noted
that cloud debris from the previous day`s convection may trap heat
and result in warmer overnight lows, while cloud cover and rainfall
may lower daytime highs in locations affected by storms.
Temperatures start to decrease later in the week as high pressure
moves back east.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast
Package...Currently thinking the abundant clouds this morning will
inhibit convection this afternoon, thus have opted to remove any
mention of TS in the TAF. There remains a low chance (~10%), but
anticipating anything that develops to remain on the terrain. Better
(but still low) chance that outflow from distant storms makes its
way into the valley this afternoon/evening. Should this occur, it
would most likely be from the south or southwest. Otherwise, light
winds generally 5-10 knots and SCT-BKN clouds at or above 8kft.
Temps to exceed 100F from 20z-03z.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Clouds and isolated
showers encompass most of the central forecast area this morning.
Currently thinking this activity will inhibit more robust convection
later across Clark and San Bernardino counties. Elsewhere, expecting
isolated to scattered showers and storm this afternoon, waning this
evening. Gusty outflow winds will be the main concern. Otherwise,
winds should remain light and favor typical daily patterns. SCT-BKN
clouds around 8-10kft.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stessman
AVIATION...Woods

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NWS Las Vegas (VEF) Office