379
FXUS65 KVEF 281123
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
423 AM PDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated thunderstorms remain possible, mainly across Inyo County
  and central Nevada through Friday, with potential diminishing
  heading into the weekend.

* Dry conditions and above normal temperatures return this weekend
  through early next week, with a resurgence of monsoonal moisture
  expected toward the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Moisture from TS Juliette will continue to stream north and east
overnight and Thursday bringing extensive mid and high level
moisture to much of the area. This will bring mostly cloudy skies to
much of southern Nevada, San Bernardino County, and northwest
Arizona. Due to the lack of full sun, conditions will remain fairly
stable through the day limiting the amount of available CAPE.
Although we could still see some isolated light showers, most of
those areas will remain dry. Areas across northern Inyo, Esmeralda,
central Nye, and northern Lincoln counties could see a bit more sun
with the models indicating CAPE values up to 200 j/kg. There isn`t a
lot of instability to work with, but a few isolated afternoon
thunderstorms will be possible. DCAPEs up to 1200 j/kg could lead to
some gusty outflow winds, but with PW only around 0.50", the threat
of flash flooding is on the lower end. With plenty of cloud cover,
temperatures today will be on the cooler side with high generally 8-
10 degrees below normal.

Friday will be fairly similar overall except we will see more
sunshine across the area. Instability remains fairly weak and the
greatest threat of showers and thunderstorms will remain over the
northern zones once again. Temperatures will warm slightly Friday,
but still remain a few degrees below normal.

As the aforementioned shortwave weakens this weekend, the ridge is
progged to retrograde across the Four Corners Region and build
further over the Desert Southwest. This will yield a continued
drying trend, with increasing thicknesses allowing for a quick
rebound to near and above normal temperatures this weekend into
early next week. While ridging will be the rule locally, ensembles
indicate another trough taking shape off of the Pacific Northwest
late this weekend, which could act to once again deamplify and
displace the ridge eastward, allowing for a return of monsoonal
moisture in the first half of next week. This uptick in moisture
and ascent provided by the trough as it translates inland brings
low-order PoPs back to southern and eastern areas the first half
of next week, with another shot at some much-needed rainfall for
locations that have missed out so far this week. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...The
first question this morning is whether an outflow boundary
approaching from the northwest will make it through the terminal.
The TAF shows light northerly winds this morning becoming
northeasterly around noon. This is a middle ground between the
possibility that the northerly winds are stronger than expected, and
the possibility that they wash out before reaching the terminal at
all. This afternoon, winds should shift to southerly or south
southeasterly, with a few hours of 15 to 20 knot gusts possible
before settling down around sunset. Mid and high clouds will stream
overhead all day, keeping temperatures below 100F.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...An outflow boundary from
storms in the southern Great Basin yesterday was still tracking
southward this morning, bringing isolated northerly winds gusting as
high as 30 knots. These winds are likely to spread through at least
part of the Las Vegas Valley this morning and then down the Colorado
River Valley, keeping a northerly component to the winds into the
afternoon. From about noon onward, new thunderstorm development is
expected in the southern Great Basin, as well as near and south of
Interstate 40. These storms will have the potential to produce
erratic gusty outflow winds, lightning, and moderate downpours. Away
from thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected under mid and high
level clouds.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gorelow/Phillipson
AVIATION...Morgan

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NWS Flagstaff Office