171
FXUS65 KVEF 251802
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1102 AM PDT Tue Aug 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dangerous heat expected across the Mojave Desert this week.

* Chances of showers and thunderstorms across the region today and
  Wednesday, with gusty winds being the greatest threat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Monday.

A ridge of high pressure generally situated over the Four Corners
region will continue to gradually shift westward over the next
couple of days, which will bring increasing heights to the Desert
Southwest. As a result, temperatures will continue to climb and will
peak on Wednesday and Thursday. As a result, there remains an
Extreme Heat Warning in effect through Friday for the Mojave Desert.
While afternoon high temperatures have been this hot (or hotter)
earlier in the summer without heat headlines, it is important to
note that there is historically a resurgence of heat-related impacts
at the end of the season. Surrounding climates are cooling off,
resulting in tourists having decreased heat acclimation.
Additionally, locals have been fighting this heat all summer, so
bodies are exhausted, and more likely to experience impacts. To
further put this heat into context, please see the CLIMATE section
at the bottom.

The Four Corners high is allowing for a southeasterly flow aloft,
which has brought PWATs near 1.00 inch to the Mojave Desert and near
0.75 inches to the southern Great Basin. There is not a ton of
instability across the region, but afternoon daytime heating will
allow for some spotty convection across the forecast area today (250-
500 J/kg of CAPE) and a weak vort max will allow for more widespread
convection on Wednesday. Forecast HRRR soundings show a pronounced
inverted V due to the dry air that remains at the surface, with 1200-
1800 J/kg of DCAPE. For this reason, the primary concerns from
showers and thunderstorms that form today and Wednesday will be
erratic gusty winds from their direction. With stronger cells that
form, cannot rule out the potential for isolated flash flooding.
Moisture will gradually decrease as the work week progresses due to
the aforementioned area of high pressure shifting westward and
bringing a dry southwesterly flow into the region.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...
Typical light wind patterns are expected through the period as
east winds become southwest tonight with speeds under 8KT. Light
and variable winds Wednesday morning will become east again
Wednesday afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
possible in the terrain of the Southern Great Basin and western
Arizona this afternoon then again Wednesday afternoon, but in
general it will remain dry and impacts from precipitation are not
expected in or around the terminals. Temperatures will exceed 100F
through 04Z this evening then again 17Z-04Z tomorrow. VFR skies
prevailing.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Typical daytime and
nighttime wind patterns with winds generally under 10KT are expected
today and tonight. KDAG will briefly gust out of the west to around
20KT this evening like they typically do, but gusts should end by
09Z tonight. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible in the
terrain of the Southern Great Basin and western Arizona this
afternoon, diminishing after sunset. VFR skies prevailing through
the period.
&&


.CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high
temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees of
the daily record.

The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the
year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records
are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

MAX           TUE, AUG 25 WED, AUG 26 THU, AUG 27 FRI, AUG 28
              Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)

Las Vegas     111(2011)   109(2001)*  110(2017)*  110(2019)*
Bishop        103(2020)   103(2019)*  103(2019)*  103(2017)
Needles       119(1924)   122(1924)   120(1891)   116(2023)*
Daggett       111(1985)   111(2011)   111(2017)   111(2017)
Kingman       106(2020)   106(2020)*  107(2017)*  107(2009)
Desert Rock   107(1985)   106(2001)*  107(2017)   107(2017)
Death Valley  123(2011)   122(2017)*  124(1924)   120(2011)*

The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature and
the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which
records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

WARM MIN      TUE, AUG 25 WED, AUG 26 THU, AUG 27 FRI, AUG 28
              Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)

Las Vegas     87(2020)    88(2020)*   87(2011)*   86(2019)*
Bishop        65(1988)    66(1988)    67(1970)    62(1970)
Needles       92(2020)*   93(2011)    93(2011)    94(2017)
Daggett       81(2003)*   82(1981)*   81(2011)*   82(2017)*
Kingman       78(2011)    79(1945)    79(2020)*   75(2019)*
Desert Rock   78(1998)*   78(1985)*   78(1995)*   77(2011)*
Death Valley  98(1991)*   98(1991)*   95(2011)*  100(2019)*
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Nickerson

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NWS Las Vegas (VEF) Office