777
FXUS65 KVEF 151930
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1230 PM PDT Fri May 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Impactful winds and cooler temperatures are likely Saturday
   through Monday as a trough moves in.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Thursday.

Temperatures are forecast to be 5-10 degrees above normal this
afternoon, but that will mark the peak of the heat for the next
several days as our next system moves in. By Monday, highs are
expected to be 15-20 degrees cooler than today. The cooldown is
accompanied by strong winds this weekend, particularly Sunday into
early Monday. Chances of 40+ mph gusts are at least 60% across the
area, with 30-50% odds of seeing 55+ mph gusts in Inyo County and
southern Nevada. The strong 850mb flow and thermal gradient shown in
raw model guidance supports these probabilities, and perhaps
suggests they are too low. Going to leave the wind headlines alone
for now as we wait for the event to come within the hi-res window.
Precipitation chances continue to be limited to eastern Lincoln and
northern Mohave counties on Sunday, with PoPs 20-50%. Winds quickly
weaken Monday afternoon/evening, and remain fairly light through
Thursday as temperatures rebound back above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Light
winds under 8KT following typical wind directions are expected
through late morning before turning southerly and becoming breezy
with gusts to 20 knots after 20Z. Gustiness will decrease after
sunset, although winds will remain elevated through the night. VFR
conditions under mainly clear skies are expected through Saturday
morning before high clouds with bases AOA 20kft AGL spread into the
area Saturday afternoon. Temperatures may briefly touch 100 degrees
between 22Z and 00Z this afternoon. Looking ahead, breezy southwest
winds with gusts over 25 knots are expected Saturday afternoon,
followed by the potential for strong winds Sunday afternoon and
Sunday night. Current guidance indicates around a 40 percent chance
of gusts exceeding 40 knots at Harry Reid after 20Z Sunday.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Moderate westerly winds
will continue at KDAG into mid-afternoon before increasing, with
gusts to 30 knots expected after 22Z. Elsewhere, south to southwest
winds will increase through the afternoon, with most areas
experiencing gusts in the 15 to 25 knot range. The exception will be
at KBIH, where north winds gusting to 20 knots are expected this
afternoon. Winds across the region will diminish around sunset
except at KDAG, where gusty winds will persist through the night.
Lighter winds will develop overnight and continue into Saturday
morning before increasing once again Saturday afternoon. Widespread
gusty northerly winds in excess of 40 knots are possible across the
northern two-thirds of the region Sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Woods
AVIATION...Planz

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter

NWS Las Vegas (VEF) Office