534
FXUS65 KVEF 150550
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1050 PM PDT Sat Mar 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Breezy north in the Colorado River Valley on Sunday and Monday
  will make for choppy waves on Lake Mohave and Lake Havasu.

* A significant warming trend will continue into next week with
  long-stranding March heat records likely to be broken across
  much of the Western US by the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through next weekend.

Skies are gradually clearing from west to east this afternoon as
the shortwave responsible for widespread high cloud cover this
morning pushes into the Central Rockies. This shortwave is
dragging a cold front southward through the Great Basin, and is
currently roughly along a line from Ely to Beatty and tracking
southward. This wind shift will reach the Las Vegas Valley by late
afternoon and spread south through the Colorado River Valley
overnight. On Sunday, these north winds will become focused along
the Colorado River Valley and persist into Monday - so beware of
locally choppy conditions and elevated lake winds if you have
plans on the water. A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for the
period.

Behind the front, temperatures Sunday will "cool" a few degrees
from their peaks today, but will still remain solidly in 8-12
degrees above normal territory. Then, starting Monday, the real
warming trend begins as an intense high pressure ridge begins to
build along the West Coast and spreads inland into the Southwest by
late in the week. Off-the-chart height anomalies are expected
Wednesday - Saturday, with heights peaking Thursday and Friday in
the 593-596 range across the Mojave Desert. This will translate to
high temperatures not seen in the modern record for March, peaking
into the 90s & 100s across the lower elevations of the Mojave
Desert, and well into the 80s and 90s across more moderate
elevations of the Great Basin and Owens Valley. To further put the
extremity of of this heat into perspective, the all-time record
March high temperature in Las Vegas is 93 degrees, and every day
Wednesday through Saturday is expected to be at least that warm,
if not several degrees warmer.

Needless to say, increasing HeatRisk will accompany these
temperatures with widespread Minor HeatRisk (Level 1 of 4) across
the area early next week and widespread Moderate HeatRisk (Level 2
of 4) across the lower elevations and valleys of the Mojave
Desert during the second half of the week. Heat sensitive
individuals, people traveling to the Southwest from cooler
climates, and those without access to adequate hydration and
cooling will be the most at risk for adverse heat related impacts
and should take preventative measures to minimize their chances of
being negatively impacted by the heat. Some examples of
preventative measures include, but are not limited to: wearing
loose, light colored clothing, wearing sunscreen, and taking extra
care to remain hydrated.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Northwesterly
winds should shift to the northeast later tonight with speeds of
less than 10 knots. Northeasterly winds increase to over 10 knots
with gusts to around 20 knots as a frontal passage moves through
later in the morning, lasting through the afternoon. Gusty winds
should diminish after sunset and eventually shift back to the
northwest. FEW to SCT mid and high clouds will move across the
area through the forecast period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Gusty northerly winds
pick up on Sunday morning as a front moves through. This includes
gusts between 15 and 20 knots in the Las Vegas Valley, 20 to 25
knots in Owens Valley, and 25 to 35 knots in the Colorado River
Valley. Elevated winds will last through the afternoon, weakening in
most locations after sunset, except for the Colorado River Valley
where gusty winds will continue into the evening. FEW to SCT mid and
high clouds will move across the area through the forecast period.

&&

.CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high
temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees of
the daily record.

The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the
year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records
are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

MAX           SAT, MAR 14  SUN, MAR 15  MON, MAR 16  TUE, MAR 17
              Record(Yr)   Record(Yr)   Record(Yr)   Record (Yr)

Las Vegas     89(2007)*    88(2017)     89(2007)     91(2007)*
Bishop        84(2007)*    82(2007)     84(2007)*    84(2007)*
Needles       96(2017)*    95(2007)     98(2007)     99(2007)*
Daggett       92(2007)     93(2013)     93(2007)     92(2007)*
Kingman       86(2013)     87(2007)     90(1934)     89(2007)*
Desert Rock   84(2017)*    85(2013)     86(2007)*    87(2007)*
Death Valley  98(2007)*    99(2007)     99(2007)*    102(2007)*

The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature and
the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which
records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

WARM MIN      SAT, MAR 14  SUN, MAR 15  MON, MAR 16  TUE, MAR 17
              Record(Yr)   Record(Yr)   Record(Yr)   Record (Yr)

Las Vegas     64(2003)     61(2017)*    64(2011)     64(1994)*
Bishop        46(2020)     46(2004)     42(1976)*    46(2015)*
Needles       65(1926)     63(1972)     69(2007)     64(1901)*
Daggett       57(2007)*    60(2013)     58(2013)*    60(1974)*
Kingman       53(1926)*    53(1947)*    55(2013)     50(1947)*
Desert Rock   57(2003)*    54(2007)*    61(1997)     58(1993)*
Death Valley  66(2023)*    71(2003)     72(1972)     72(2013)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Outler
AVIATION...Meltzer

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NWS Las Vegas (VEF) Office