175
FXUS65 KVEF 050740
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1240 AM PDT Mon Oct 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Above-normal temperatures will continue across the region through
  Friday, with dangerous heat expected in Death Valley.

* Our next system is expected to bring cooler temperatures,
  increased winds and low precipitation chances this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Sunday.

Ridging and anomalous 500mb heights remain in place through the work
week. A weak disturbance can be seen in water vapor satellite
imagery coming ashore in central/northern CA. This feature will pass
through the southern Great Basin today and then into AZ on Tuesday.
Only expecting subtle cooling (1-3 degrees), slightly increased
breezes, and a few high clouds today and Tuesday. However,
temperatures remain above normal and the ridge quickly rebounds mid-
week. Highs are forecast to be 5-12 degrees above normal throughout
the week, with the most pronounced heat in the lower elevations of
Death Valley National Park where an Extreme Heat Warning is in
effect through Friday evening. Highs there will be ~110 with
overnight lows in the 80s, resulting in major to extreme HeatRisk.
Elsewhere, anticipating minor to moderate HeatRisk throughout the
week.

This weekend, a Pacific trough is forecast to approach our region.
Uncertainty remains in the trough`s interaction with Hurricane
Rachel in the eastern Pacific. The GFS ensemble is more skeptical
than the ECMWF ensemble, but rain chances remain on the table on
Sunday and into early next week (10-30%). Confidence is much higher
in the presence of gusty winds and a cooldown beginning Saturday.
Chances for 30+ mph gusts are 40-75% across most of the area over
the weekend, with the best odds of wind impacts generally along the
I-15 and I-40 corridors. From Friday to Sunday, temperatures are
forecast to drop ~10 degrees, bringing values back closer to normal.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Light
winds following typical directional patterns expected through Monday
night. Due to the light magnitude, the direction may vary at times,
but will favor the east-northeast during the afternoon. Can`t rule
out an isolated gust to 15 kts (20 percent chance) with the heating
of the day. No operationally significant cloud cover through the TAF
period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Light winds following
typical directional patterns expected through Monday night. Can`t
rule out isolated gusts between 15 and 20 kts with afternoon
heating. With these gusts, the Las Vegas Valley TAF sites will favor
the east, KBIH the south-southeast, and KDAG the east. No
operationally significant cloud cover through the TAF period.
&&

.CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high
temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees of
the daily record.

The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the
year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records
are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

MAX           MON, OCT 5  TUE, OCT 6  WED, OCT 7  THU, OCT 8
              Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record (Yr)

Las Vegas     100(2024)   100(2024)   99(1978)*   98(2024)*
Bishop        94(1987)    94(2024)*   94(1965)*   95(1996)
Needles       112(1917)   111(2024)   107(2024)   107(2024)
Daggett       104(2024)   105(2024)   102(2024)   101(1996)*
Kingman       99(2024)    100(2024)   99(2024)    98(1996)
Desert Rock   100(2024)   100(2024)   99(2024)    98(1996)*
Death Valley  113(2024)   110(2024)*  109(2024)*  112(1996)*

The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature and
the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which
records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

WARM MIN      MON, OCT 5  TUE, OCT 6  WED, OCT 7  THU, OCT 8
              Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record (Yr)

Las Vegas     78(2024)    74(2024)*   75(2024)*   76(2024)*
Bishop        56(1993)    52(2018)    57(1943)    51(1960)*
Needles       79(1993)    77(2023)*   76(1947)*   76(2024)*
Daggett       75(2024)    75(2024)    72(2024)*   69(1980)*
Kingman       67(1924)    67(1949)*   69(1947)*   67(1960)*
Desert Rock   69(2024)*   66(1990)*   65(1980)*   70(2024)*
Death Valley  85(2024)*   83(1943)*   80(1943)*   85(1964)*
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Woods
AVIATION...Soulat
CLIMATE...Soulat

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NWS Las Vegas (VEF) Office