830
FXUS65 KPSR 050019
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
519 PM MST Sat Apr 4 2026

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures with afternoon highs in the nineties
  will be common through the middle of next week as high pressure
  prevails over the region.

- There is a chance of scattered showers and isolated storms,
  especially on Monday, across the Arizona high terrain.

- Another weather system is likely to affect the region late next
  week and weekend, leading to increased winds and cooling
  temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...
Latest objective analysis shows a ridge of high pressure across
the western third of CONUS with a very dry air mass currently
overhead, with dewpoints in the single digits and teens. As a
result, a tranquil weather day under mostly sunny skies can be
expected. Temperatures this afternoon will warm into the upper 80s
to low 90s across much of the lower deserts. As the upper-level
ridge axis shifts further inland across the western CONUS Sunday,
low-level thermal profiles will warm even further and thus
afternoon temperatures will warm into the middle 90s across much
of the lower deserts.

As surface high pressure builds across the Plains and pushes a
backdoor front into southern AZ, a surge of easterly winds can be
expected across much south-central and southeast AZ later tonight
into Sunday morning, with the potential for wind gusts to peak
between 25-35 mph across the higher terrain areas east of Phoenix
and 15-25 mph across the lower elevations Sunday morning before
weakening heading into the afternoon hours. Another surge of
easterly winds is expected once again late Sunday night into
Monday morning with similar speed magnitudes. This easterly wind
surge will also cause a modest increase in moisture, leading to
the potential development of a few showers and isolated storms
starting Sunday afternoon across mainly the Mogollon Rim and White
Mountains. Heading into Monday, a weak shortwave riding the
subtropical branch of the jet stream will traverse the region
likely increase the overall convective coverage, focused across
the higher terrain of northern and far eastern AZ. Across the
lower deserts, there will be too much dry air in the low levels,
prohibiting convective activity from developing. Under the
influence of considerable mid to upper-level clouds accompanying
the passing shortwave, afternoon high temperatures on Monday will
cool into the upper 80s to low 90s across the south-central AZ
lower deserts while slighter warmer readings in the low to mid 90s
can be expected across the western deserts.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
Upper-level ridging will continue to prevail across the region
through the middle of the week and thus afternoon highs will
continue to run approximately 10 degrees above normal, with
readings topping out in the middle 90s. Heading towards the end of
next week and weekend, model guidance is indicating a more
vigorous upper- level low moving in from the eastern Pacific into
our region. However, considerable differences exist in terms of
the timing and degree of amplification of this feature as it
approaches. Cooler temperatures with readings retreating to near
normal levels and increased winds appear more probable. However,
if this feature becomes highly amplified as some of the guidance
is suggesting, then there is a potential that enough moisture may
be drawn in to give increased rain chances across portions of the
region, particularly across the AZ high terrain heading into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0019Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

Light W/NW winds are expected through this evening, with some
variability, before returning E/NE tonight by 05-07Z. A strong
easterly gradient wind will develop tonight/Sunday morning and may
lead to minor LLWS impacts. Elevated breezes may mix to the
surface overnight, but upon mixing after sunrise Sunday morning,
around 15-16Z, easterly surface winds will increase up to 10-15
kts, with gusts up to 20-25 kts (20% chance for peak gusts >25
kts). The prospect of slantwise visibility impacts from lofted
dust in the morning is there, but confidence low. Gustiness will
subside by mid afternoon Sunday, with E/SE wind directions
expected to persist through the rest of the afternoon and evening.
FEW to BKN mid and high clouds will continue to pass over the
area.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation weather impacts are expected through the next 24
hours under FEW - BKN high clouds. Winds will favor a W/NW
component through most of the TAF period, while favoring N/NW at
KBLH. Wind speeds will mostly stay below 8 kts, with periods of
light variability and calm conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Generally dry weather and above normal temperatures will persist
during the next several days. Afternoon MinRHs will fall to near
10% today before increasing slightly on Sunday and Monday as
moisture increases. The increase in moisture will result in some
shower and thunderstorm chances, mainly confined to northern and
far eastern AZ, particularly on Monday. Lighter winds are expected
today before easterly winds increase Sunday and Monday mornings,
particularly across the higher terrain areas of south-central AZ
where peak gusts upwards of 25-35 mph are possible. Lighter winds
briefly return Tuesday and Wednesday before increasing once again
towards the latter portion of next week with the approach of
another weather system.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lojero
LONG TERM...Lojero
AVIATION...Benedict
FIRE WEATHER...Lojero/Ryan

NWS Phoenix (PSR) Office