124
FXUS65 KPSR 151101
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
400 AM MST Sun Nov 15 2026

.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather and warming temperatures starting today, and lasting
through Monday.

- Unsettled weather will return Tuesday and again late week, leading
to a couple periods with rain chances over south-central Arizona and
cooling temperatures near to below daily normals.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The shortwave that moved across northern AZ yesterday is now
positioned along the boarder between NM and TX. Behind the
shortwave, to our region`s west, upper level ridging is building and
will quickly move eastwards and strengthen over the Desert SW
starting today.That being said, H5 heights will climb back up to
between 577-580 dam by this afternoon, which will diminish any
further rainfall and begin to trend temperatures back into the mid
to upper 70s across the lower deserts. Further warming will occur
heading into Monday where temperatures will increase to the upper
70s with the Phoenix Metro having near an 80% chance of hitting at
least 80F.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
By late monday night/early Tuesday morning another upper level
trough will push inland with models now showing the core of this
next system lifting to the NE through NV and UT. However the bottom
of the trough will move through Arizona providing enough ascent to
the region to increase PoPs back to between 60-90% across South-
Central AZ, and 20-60% across SW AZ. PWATs Tuesday will also
increase to over 200%, with the latest WPC QPF indicating Tuesday`s
rain totals between 0.25"-0.50" across the Greater Phoenix area,
locally higher in thunderstorms, and close to 1.00" over Central AZ
higher terrain to the north/northeast. However, considerable spread
remains in the model guidance, with 25th-75th percentile QPF ranging
between a few tenths to upwards of 1.25", focused over the higher
terrain to the north/northeast of Phoenix. A 1-2 day break in the
unsettled weather will then likely ensue following Tuesday, ahead of
the next system.

During the latter half of the week, ensembles are pointing towards
yet another upper level trough moving inland from the Pacific NW,
however, there are still considerable discrepancies in the
trajectory of this followup system (how far south it will propagate,
which will impact the moisture return and placement of the best
upper level ascent mechanisms). Due to this, confidence remains low
for PoPs/QPF late in the work week, but at the very least, there is
building consensus for an even cooler airmass to enter the region as
a result of this second system. Latest NBM highs continue to trend
towards the 60s to lower 70s by late week. However, the spread in
the model guidance increases considerably on Friday, with IQRs on
the NBM forecast temperatures increasing to 8F-10F.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1100Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Periods of cigs near 6K ft AGL this morning and uncertainty in wind
directions will be the main weather issues through Monday morning.
Cloud decks in a 5K-7K ft AGL layer will gradually erode through the
day, only clearing around sunset. Forecast confidence is good that
light east winds will prevail much of the period, however may become
variable or briefly obtain a W/NW trajectory during the later
afternoon/early evening.


Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No major weather issues will exist through Monday morning under
slowly decreasing 5K-7K ft AGL cloud decks. Confidence in wind
directions is moderate favoring a W/SW component at KIPL, and light
north winds becoming southerly at KBLH. Extended periods of nearly
calm conditions will be common.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions and temperatures warming near to slightly above
normal are expected starting today lasting through Monday before
another weather system moves through the region on Tuesday. Despite
the upcoming drier and warmer conditions afternoon minimum
humidities will continue to range between 30-60% areawide through
the week, following good to excellent overnight recovery. Widespread
breezy and locally windy conditions in Southeast CA will develop
with the next system on Tuesday. This system will also cool
temperatures back into a below normal category. The next weather
system will likely reach the area by Friday and result in even
cooler temperatures and another round of rain chances.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Gila: A Flood Warning remains in effect from Painted Rock Dam
through the Dateland area through at least early next week due to
water released from the dam. Water releases remain at 3000 cfs and
are expected to remain at this level through the next several days.
This will have the potential to flood farm fields and low water
crossings along the river downstream from the dam.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Whittock/Ryan
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...Whittock/Ryan
HYDROLOGY...Lojero

NWS Phoenix (PSR) Office